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Investors told... buy MEAT, not WHEAT

14/03/08. How long before there is a major correction in this bull market for wheat? It's an accident waiting to happen according to Dominic Frisby in MoneyWeek.

"Yes, I know all the arguments. Asian diets are improving, their middle class is growing, they’re eating more meat, more grain has to be grown to feed the livestock, the drought in Australia has hit wheat supply, the Americans are using their corn to make ethanol, more fields are being turned over to corn, inventories are low, supply can’t meet demand, monetary inflation means higher prices in everything, what if we get bad weather and it kills the harvest?"I know all of this. They are all utterly convincing arguments that hold a great deal of truth – it’s because of this credibility that more and more people are climbing on board and pushing the price up further," he says."Nevertheless the price has got way ahead of itself in my view and is due a correction, potentially a nasty one. All the risk is to the downside."

One of the consequences of the high cost of grain is that it has become expensive for farmers to feed their cattle and pigs, so many have been sending their livestock to an early slaughter.

"This has led to there being rather a surfeit of meat on the commodities exchanges with the resultant steep decline in the price of hog and cattle (this despite the rise of the new meat-eating middle-classes in Asia we hear so much about).

"Further down the road, as more stocks are slaughtered, what surely lies in store is a shortage of pigs and cattle to eat all this wheat. Meat, not wheat, is where you should be looking for an entry point in the coming months.

"As for wheat, your eyes should be looking towards the exit."

Poland to seek more help from Brussels

14/03/08. At the Brussels Agriculture Council meeting next Monday, Poland will call for longer periods of private storage and higher export refunds to deal with the crisis in the pigmeat sector.

Tired of being the fall guys

14/03/08. Media campaigns about high prices are adversely affecting French farmers, who are struggling to keep their heads above water, according to the French Meat Industry Association. Retail prices for meat have risen steadily in the last year – pork by 5.9 percent and beef by 4.1 percent. The meat industry has been accused of increasing prices of meat products above reasonable limits, an accusation that French farmers condemn as as "stigmatisation".

This is what makes us tick...

14/03/08. A one-day course organised by BPEX will seek to give representatives from organisations such as Defra, the Environment Agency and the Rural Payments Agency, a grounding in the British pig industry.

To be held at Writtle on April 16 it will cover general pig production systems, financial aspects of producing pigs, regulatory requirements, biosecurity, current challenges faced by the industry and the proactive measures the industry is taking to help itself become more efficient at producing quality pork.

Scottish pork promoted on cabs

14/03/08. Quality Meat Scotland is promoting Scottish pork on Edinburgh taxis. Its campaign encourages consumers to put 'Specially Selected Pork' on their forks. Sales of pork in Scotland have increased ten percent over the past year.

As well as advertising on taxis, the Quality Meat Scotland campaign will include a return to radio commercials featuring actress Michelle Gomez.

The advertising campaign is being backed by a tour of Asda, Sainsbury and Tesco stores by 'Specially Selected Pork' brand ambassadors, handing out tips and recipes for midweek dinners.

Materials are also available to independent retailers. The aim is to reach more than 1.5m Scottish consumers during the campaign – all of whom will be targeted by messages on multiple occasions.

New salmonella control scheme

14/03/08. A new programme to control salmonella in pigs comes into force from the beginning of next month. The Zoonoses National Control Programme replaces ZAP, with the focus on a whole-chain approach to the control of salmonella.

As reported in Pig World August 2007, the most fundamental change is that the programme will be targeting a reduction in the prevalence of salmonella in carcases.

There will be no ZAP categories; everybody will be urged to keep prevalence under ten percent. Reports will be issued every four months and sampling with change to four per month for all units.

Plans are under way for all European Union member countries to have a national control plan for salmonella in pigs.

“The British industry is committed to reducing the risk to consumers from salmonella from pig meat products bearing the Quality Standard Mark,” said Veronica Wright, Zoonoses National Control Programme co-ordinator.

“Progress will be monitored through checking the prevalence on carcases in abattoirs and improvements will be driven by processors and producers working together. All units should have an action plan to control salmonella which is reviewed in detail with vets at least annually.”

The first report under the ZNCP will be issued in May. Further information will be published in Pig World. Producers will be circulated with the information and it will also be available online.

English pig herd drops

13/03/08. The English pig herd dropped in slightly last year, according to the December census — but not by much, because the foot and mouth outbreak hit the industry shortly after the full impact of higher feed prices started to be felt, preventing producers from selling their sows at a price that would allow them to quit the industry with a clean pair of heels. However, the June 2008 census figures will show a significantly different picture as gilts being kept for breeding have fallen nearly 20 percent, according to the December 2007 census.

(000)	Dec 2006	June 07	Dec 07	Dec 07 / Dec 06 +/-
Total pigs	3,838	3,943	3,779	-1.5%
Breeding pigs	446	445	432	-3.1%
Boars being used for service	15	16	19	24.3%
Gilts 50kg and over not yet in pig but expected to be used for breeding	67	54	54	-19.2%
Breeding herd total	364	375	360	-1.3%
Sows in pig	251	262	256	2.0%
Gilts in pig	52	48	46	-12.0%
Other sows (either being suckled, or dry sows being kept for further breeding)	61	65	58	-5.4%
Barren sows for fattening	4	3	7	64.5%
Other pigs	3,387	3,496	3,340	-1.4%
Liveweight: 110kg & over	32	36	30	-6.8%
Liveweight: 80kg and under 110kg	551	589	559	1.4%
Liveweight: 50kg and under 80kg	887	899	826	-6.9%
Liveweight: 20kg and under 50kg	986	977	941	-4.5%
Liveweight: under 20kg	932	995	984	5.6%

BPEX says the fact that the December census shows no decline in the national pig herd comes as no surprise — because there was no market for cull sows last autumn due to foot and mouth, so a huge backlog built up. The market only re-started at the tail end of 2007.

However, the latest figures show weekly sow cullings are running at something like 45 percent above the level of this time last year which is indicative of a reduction in the national breeding herd.

"The average increase in United Kingdom culling of 1,700 a week this year equals 36,000 pigs over a typical 21 week cycle. If this rate of culling were to continue for six months that would mean almost a million fewer finished pigs on the market which in turn would mean much less home-produced pork and pork products on supermarket shelves," said BPEX chief executive Mick Sloyan.

"The only way of reversing this trend is for producers to be paid a fair return for their pigs. They are at present getting about 113p a kilo when they need something like 140p a kilo.

"Retail prices did go up towards the end of last year but not enough and little if any of that increase has flowed down the supply chain to the producer."

Macdonalds Hotels moves to 100 percent Quality Standard Mark

13/03/08. Pork, bacon, sausages and ham served in Macdonald Hotels' 21 hotels nationwide will in future all be British, and Macdonalds will carry the Quality Standard Mark on menus and in publicity material. "The company wants to support the British Pigs Are Worth It campaign," said Tony Goodger of BPEX. " And by carrying the Quality Standard Mark on menus it is also positioning itself further upmarket than its competitors."

Asda will move on price

13/03/08. Asda said this afternoon it will add another 2p a kilo to the price it pays. No further details are available yet.

EBLEX chief executive to go

13/03/08. Richard Ali steps down as chief executive of the English Beef and Lamb Executive at the end of this month.

We're on the road again

13/03/08. NPA is thinking of going on tour around the country with a few pigs, to continue the process of hammering home the industry’s message.

Has anyone got a suitable Ifor Williams trailer, or equivalent, they could lend?

It needs to be 4 metres by 2 metres, probably tandem-axle, with the wheels under the body, and low drop-down sides. If you can help, please email Nick White.

And here is another request – somewhere to keep the trailer and pigs overnight.

Overnight stays are needed in the north-east for Sunday March 30, near Manchester for Monday March 31, near Norwich on Tuesday April 1, and near Bristol on Wednesday April 2. Please email Digby Scott if you can help.

Battening down the hatches

13/03/08. Denmark's pig farmers - who receive even less for their pigs than their British counterparts - have battened down the hatches according to one equipment supplier. "They have simply stopped spending," the company told Pig World.

New combinable crops board chairman elected

13/03/08. Former pig farmer Ian Backhouse has been elected chairman of the NFU’s Combinable Crops Board. Mr Backhouse, a farmer from Goole in Yorkshire, succeeds Arthur Hill who has stood down after two terms in office.

Tribute to Ian Campbell

13/03/08. Defra chief veterinary officer Fred Landeg has paid tribute to NPA's Ian Campbell. "It was in 2000 that I met Ian Campbell and gained great respect for him as an enormously knowledgeable representative of the industry and the great contribution he made on its behalf in a quiet but very effective way," he said. "I wish him well in his retirement.It has been an honour to have worked with him."

A sort of goodbye

Above: Ian Campbell (centre) with NPA chairman Stewart Houston, and Ann Petersson, who was NPA's policy manager until here retirement in December.

13/03/08. By Digby Scott. The British pig industry bid a sort of goodbye to a remarkable man at a dinner organised by NPA, at the Farmers Club in London this week. Following the appointment of Zoe Davies to replace him, NPA regions manager Ian Campbell will now do what he had intended to do back in December – retire.

But he will not be leaving our lives completely, which is why it is only a sort of goodbye. He will continue to organise this summer’s European Pig Producers congress in England, he will serve on the National Fallen Stock Company board, and he will continue working with Defra on the issue of pyramids.

“We don’t know what we are going to do without you, Ian,” said NPA chairman Stewart Houston at the sort-of-goodbye dinner. “You’ve been a big mate to me – someone to talk to through the really difficult times, and it has been really appreciated.”

In response, Ian said his time with NPA had been a happy continuation from British Pig Industry Support Group… “which had a soul and a heart, and was a fantastic organisation”.

John Godfrey, founding chairman of NPA had asked him at Lincolnshire Show if he would be interested in using his BPISG experience in a staff position at NPA.

“Initially I declined but the prospect of being paid to continue doing what I enjoyed doing was too good to resist – although as I step down I wish it was on a note that shows that all the work that all of us have put in has brought an industry that is in sustainable mode.”

He said he had been out of the country when the London rally was held, but he followed its progress and asked himself if he really wanted to be leaving all this magic behind. “You are a great bunch of people and I have enjoyed every moment of working with you.”

Ian’s entry into the British pig industry was by a circuitous route. He was removed from the sixth form at his grammar school, by a father who viewed his intellectual ability in a less than flattering light - a view shared by his headmaster, who in his final report, summarised his contribution to school life with the words “a cheerful ass”.

Following two terms at a local technical college, where the mixed classes were a major distraction, he joined Cadbury Bros at their factory in Bourneville, Birmingham. “Cadbury in those days were still imbued with a strong Quaker influence which I still value to this day,” he said.

He spent ten years with Cadbury, moving through the factory, offices and finally into a representative capacity in South London… “when marriage and a yearning to do something more useful with my life than sell chocolate led me to seek employment in the agricultural world and move up into rural Suffolk where my interest in pigs finally took hold.”

His pig career started out in the feed industry but fairly quickly moved into the genetics world at a time when British pig genetics were much in demand globally, enabling his company, United Pig Breeders, to earn a Queens Award for Export Achievement in the mid eighties.

“The successful trading of breeding stock into new markets meant harnessing genetics to correct nutrition, housing and management and slowly I was able to acquire a broad knowledge of pig keeping and a thirst for more.”

Fifteen years ago he became involved with the direct running of a nucleus pig herd and at the same time specialised in artificial insemination techniques and equipment.

The pig herd management came to an end nine years ago when he joined the newly formed National Pig Association, which arose from amalgamating the NFU pig committee with the British Pig Association (the British Pig Association returning to its original role of managing the pedigree population).

• Ian Campbell will continue with his Unitron pig equipment business and will extend it into nutritional products currently being developed, in particular an extruded linseed oil product with omega-3 properties, which has performed outstandingly in trials.

NPA says thank you to Ann

13/03/08. Following her retirement from NPA (see February Pig World), chairman Stewart Houston paid tribute to Ann Petersson at a joint farewell dinner for her and NPA regions manager Ian Campbell, who is also retiring.

Ann Petersson had been with the association from the day it was formed, he said, and her NFU experience helped the association get its message across “perhaps a little more politely than we otherwise would have done”.

He thanked her particularly for her work in Brussels and in Defra meetings and made particular mention of her role with breeding companies over European transport regulations.

In response Ann thanked all the people at NPA she had worked with and said the reality was that she could not have worked as effectively without the input of producer members. “The staff, combined with the talent of producers, can together do tremendous things,” she said.

China's backyarders quit in droves

13/03/08. Over half of China's backyard pig farmers have quit producing pigs in recent years, whilst the number of commercial pig farms has increased 20 percent, and this process is continuing as the country strives to increase pork production.

But production this year is still expected to be down 16 percent on 2005, although slightly up in last year. The worst snowstorms in 50 years during January and February have done nothing to help, and the country's recovery from blue ear is proving a protracted process.

As a result, a United States report predicts an 8 percent rise in pork imports to China this year to meet the demands of consumers, who are becoming more affluent. United States-based Whiteshire Hamroc Company has signed an agreement with China's Tangrenshen Group ito import 2,000 breeding pigs for a large commercial pig project.

Eastern Europe is short of pork

13/03/08. The new European Union member countries in Eastern Europe will need to import around 1m tonnes of pigmeat this year. December census figures show a 10 percent drop in the number of sows in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Excluding Hungary and Poland, the Eastern European member countries produce only 60-80 percent of their domestic needs. Germany will be a key supplier to these markets this year, but competition will also hot up from outside the European Union.

Life in the old girl yet

13/03/08. One of Winnie's minders at the NPA London rally - consultant Nick White of Pork Chain Solutions - thought he detected signs of her coming into heat during the rally. A few days after her return to Prosperity Farm, Winnie became boisterous, lifting the gate of her paddock and chasing a radio interviewer around.

Marianne Hill, of Prosperity Farm, decided to let nature take its course and provided the necessary male company. After a day of x-rated behaviour in the paddocks, there is a possibility, albeit not a strong one, that Winnie could be a mum again.

Pig feed sales fall

12/03/08. Retail production of pig feed is up six percent over the past 12 months — but this tells only half the story. Starter and creep feed fell from 71,000 tonnes in November to 63,000 tones in January. Link/early grower feeds dropped from 61,000 tonnes to 55,000 tonnes. Grower feed dropped from 31,200 tonnes to 28,500 tonnes. Finishing feed was down from 62,200 tonnes to 58,300 tonnes. Pig breeding feed fell from 34,000 tonnes to 33,100 tonnes. These figures are another clue to the cutbacks currently taking place in the national herd.

Allied industries help Winnie

12/03/08. Looking after a retired celebrity isn’t cheap and following the NPA London rally - where Winnie was the undisputed star - Hugh Crabtree, of Farmex, wanted to do something to ease the financial burden on her keeper Marianne Hill, of Vitality Farm in Oxfordshire.

BOCM Pauls and the Booth Group immediately offered help - BOCM Pauls with sow feed and James Booth with a new farrowing ark.

Details of how and when the goods will be supplied haven’t been finalised but it is envisaged that Vitality Farm will be able to collect bagged sow feed from BOCM Pauls’ agent at Thame, in Oxfordshire, whilst James Booth will arrange to have a new steel ark, worth £350, delivered.

Hugh Crabtree is delighted with both companies’ generosity. He points out that Marianne and her daughter Marie went well beyond the call of duty in supporting the London rally, where they were on duty all day and kept her well groomed for her meetings with (other) celebrities and several leading Members of Parliament.

He points out that the industry may need to use Winnie again, as she is still quite clearly still a massive draw, and therefore it is only right that the industry should contribute to her upkeep.

Zoe joins NPA

12/03/08. Dr. Zoe Davies is joining NPA from Defra. She will succeed Ian Campbell, who agreed to delay his retirement until her appointment.

After gaining her PhD, Zoe spent six months with MAFF, followed by a spell with BQP. “They had just set up a new technology centre on their indoor rearing unit and I came in to run the various trials. Having no clue what happened to 7kg weaners once we’d sold them off the field, this was a rather in-at-the-deep-end-experience, but one I thoroughly enjoyed.”

After a couple of years, and following a devastating swine fever outbreak, she took over the management of the unit and oversaw the transition from a 3,500-place rearing unit to a 2,000 rear-to-finish all-in, all-out system.

In 2002 she joined the Livestock Science Unit within the newly formed Defra where she experienced the massive shift of government priority from production efficiency to environmental impact.

“It’s been an interesting few years and I’ve made many good contacts and learnt much of the internal workings of Defra policy which I know will help me in my new role. I know that this is a really serious time for the industry, but I’m looking forward to being able to pitch in. It feels really good to be coming home,” she said today.

For Zoe, getting involved in the pig industry was a bit of a happy accident really. After leaving the University of Swansea in 1994 with a zoology degree, an addiction to jammy dodgers and far too much of an interest in orang-utan behaviour, she joined Dr Jane Guise at Cambac JMA research.

This organisation had been set up by the then Cambac pig farmers to fund research that addressed real industry issues. Under the guidance of the University of Reading, she undertook a PhD comparing indoor and outdoor sow health and welfare using Cambac’s own 500-sow outdoor unit and many others owned by BQP and Thames Valley Pigs.

“Even though it was a rather steep learning curve I enjoyed being hands-on and working on the outdoor unit, gaining a deep respect for the stock people, a love for the old girls and amazement at how straw really does get everywhere!

“I was also fortunate enough to be involved in several other Cambac projects along the way, from long distance transport and alternatives to stall and tether systems to causes of tail biting and improving abattoir lairage systems, giving me an appreciation of the wider issues facing the industry at the time.”

Irish producers left behind

11/03/08. The longer the delay in passing back pig price increases to Irish producers, the more desperate the situation becomes, says the irish Farmers Association. It has reacted with dismay to the fact that Irish producers were left behind last week as prices rose in Denmark, Germany and Spain. Factory pig throughput so far this year is down 7,000, andthje association predicts throughput will further decrease as the year progresses.

German exports increase

10/03/08. Exports of German pork increased around 20 percent last year to 1.2m tonnes. Other European Union countries have also reported above-average export performance. Imports of pork also increased, by around 5 percent.

I'll be horse-whipped for saying it, but...

10/03/08. By Digby Scott. Although this is a proposition that will have British pig producers reaching for their horsewhips, environmental constraints may eventually make pig production a less risky business.

Currently producers around the world fail to make the returns they deserve, given the risks involved, because they have little or no scarcity power. Pigs can be produced in most countries and setting up production is inexpensive, requiring a postage stamp of land and a few basic buildings. Expanding production when prices rise is even easier.

Even if all the major pig producing countries in the world acted in unison to increase prices, they would be doomed to failure. Because as soon as prices increased, more people would be attracted into pig production. Economists argue that as pig production is a comparatively easy business to get into, it will never have scarcity power and therefore pig producers will never be rich.

But pig production is undergoing a green revolution. If pigs don’t have scarcity power at present, land does, and increasingly pig production must be tied to land so that slurry can be properly recycled into food crops. These constraints are already making themselves felt in major pig producing countries such as Denmark, Holland, Canada and the United States.

Going forward, countries such as Russia and China will introduce similar conditions, partly because world opinion will demand it, but mainly because no country actively wants to be a polluter.

Legislatively linking pigs with land is not a complete guarantee of scarcity power. The pigs themselves will still not take up very much land, and therefore producers with land will not have to decide whether to produce pigs or grow crops; they can do both. But it does mean that prices should not collapse so precipitately in future, because it will not be so easy for new farmers to enter the pig business when prices are good.

Processors worried about supply

10/03/08. The best news at ACMC’s spring conference was that processors were actively looking for pigs and were worried about security of supply as, on then day of the conference, the price of European imports had risen quicker than they had ever known before. Why this should be the case became clear as producers listened to BPEX chief executive Mick Sloyan’s paper. There was a continuing strong demand for pork from Russia and China, he reported, and meanwhile sow numbers in the European Union had so far fallen by an average 4.5 percent and this would soon have a significant effect on supply. — Sam Walton.

Twenty-three butchers' shops close a month

10/03/08. In April 2000 there were 9,081 butchers in Britain. Over the next seven years that number fell to 7,186 - a decline equivalent to almost 23 butchers closing every month, according to The Telegraoph, which has been studying trends among VAT-registered businesses.

Scottish pig herd dives

8/03/08. The Scottish pig breeding herd took a 12.2 percent nosedive last year, according to latest census results. A 4.9 percent reduction in in-pig gilts suggests the exodus is continuing. Many Scottish producers have chosen this Easter to draw their line in the sand. The current shortage of pigs on the continent, and consequent firming of prices, may persuade them to stick with the the industry, despite eye-watering losses over the past six months.

The 12 percent fall-out so far comes as no surprise given the losses caused on all units as a result of higher feed prices. It is an indicator that when the England census results are published they will show a drop in the England national herd of around 10 percent. So far the continental pig breeding herd has fallen by an average of about five percent.

Processors and marketeers alike were clear on Friday that there are no cheap pigs left anywhere and the price can be expected to rise, and keep rising.

Scottish pig herd 2006 v 2007
(‘000)	Dec 2006	Dec 2007	% change
Breeding herd
Sows in pig	31.4	27.8	-11.6%
Gilts in pig	4.7	4.4	-4.9%
Other sows for breeding	7.9	6.4	-18.8%
Total	44.0	38.6	-12.2%
Barren sows for fattening	0.7	1.1	48.8%
Breeding gilts 50kg and over	4.7	4.3	-8.0%
Boars being used for service	1.4	1.3	-2.3%
All other pigs
110kg liveweight and over	6.2	4.8	-22.6%
80kg and under 110kg	62.8	65.4	4.1%
50kg and under 80kg	105.8	101.0	-4.6%
20kg and under 50kg	121.7	111.8	-8.1%
Under 20kg	122.4	121.5	-0.7%
Total	418.9	404.6	-3.4%
Total pigs	469.7	449.9	-4.2%

Leeds United pledges support for British pig industry

8/3/80. In the week when British pig farmers made the television screens with their NPA London rally, Leeds United chairman Ken Bates has told fans the club supports the industry and will only be serving Yorkshire ham Yorkshire bacon sarnies and Yorkshire pork at Elland Road. At today's game, Stand by your ham was played, to tumultous applause. "Do your bit," he urges fans. "Remember, it could be your liveliehood next!" But not everyone is so supportive. In a letter in the East Anglian press a Karl Manders, of Hadleigh, says "nobody is forcing Suffolk farmers to raise pigs. If they don't like the choice they made to do so, they should try something else". He (inaccurately) accuses pig producers of "whining to the government in the expectation of a hand-out from taxpayers". He believes the same economics should apply to food production as to selling second-hand cars.

Industry will hire image consultant to restore consumer trust

8/3/08. An image consultant is to be hired to rebuild consumer trust in the United States pig industry, which is feeling battered by criticism from animal rights activists, environmentalists and food safety groups. One of the people who mahy be approached is Mark Williams, president of Mark H. Williams and Co, who previously worked with the agency that developed advertisements such as "Pork - the Other White Meat".

German salmonella study

8/03/08. In a study in Germany around 13 percent of fattening pigs tested were infected with salmonella, compared to around 10 percent of broilers. The study found traces of salmonella enteritidis and salmonella typhimurium in pigs. The European Food Safety Authority is gathering results from European Union countries in order to coordinate future national action plans.

Sell beef, buy pork

8/03/08. Smithfield Foods stands to gain £380m from selling its Smithfield Beef Group and its subsidiary Five Rivers Ranch Cattle Feeding. The company will use the cash to pay down debt, a result of acquisitions last year, and pave the way for more pork sector acquisitions.

Don't trip up over biosecurity

8/03/08. March issue of Pig World quoted a producer who had been told by officials that they wouldn't wear Wellingtons supplied by a farm — even with new liners — in case they stumbled and fell over. Any officials reading this might be interested in investing in a supply of plastic disposable over-shoe covers. Prices vary depending upon quality, between about 6p and 30p a pair. Rotech can supply.

 

 

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